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It’s all about the Fed and it’s back door QE.
Why do they bother hiding the QE?
This video has been telling you otherwise. The Fed is reactionary, not proactive. QE doesn’t necessarily drive banks to lend.
“Front running” is why the Inverted Yield Curve is so accurate for predicting recession.
The high-level insiders know information that will lead to a recession.
They move their money out of short-term bonds, which raises the bond yields, and into long-term bonds, which lowers the bond yields.
The FED is merely following, not leading, where the real money is going; it has no control over inflation; never has, never will.
This makes sense, thats why before every recession yelds going up. Banks are moving to long term bonds with high yelds, because short term yelds in next few years will give no interest.
As always, a great analysis. Newcomers often wonder if it’s too late to navigate the financial market, but the market is always unpredictable. Trading has more advantages than simply holding, so it’s important to learn before diving in. Active trades are necessary to ride the market’s waves. Thanks to Carla Keros insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I’ve been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 650k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
The key to financial stability is having the right investment. suggestions for a diverse portfolio. Many investment failures. and losses happen when you invest without proper guidance.
Access to good information is what we investors needs to progress financially and generally in life. this is a good one and I appreciate
she appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I have seen so many recommendations about Carla Keros, her strategy must be good for people to talk about her.
Carla Keros’s analyses delve deeper than surface-level trends, encompassing technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to offer a comprehensive view of the market.
Recently just got a golden cross on the monthly chart of the 10 year yield. Rates may go lower temporarily but long term, I’d bet we are heading north like in the 70’s.
Why? The tremendous levels of debt will put on lid on economic growth and consumer prices. Will paychecks grow as fast as they did during the 70s to fuel inflation?
How high do you think the yeild will go in 2025? At what yeild would you lock in your retirement savings to live off the interest? Thanks.
@@toinengwyn3935No idea why or how they’ll make it happen. Just saying it wouldn’t be surprising based off the 10 year yield chart.
@@toinengwyn3935the tremendous level of debt was only deflationary when the currency creation was limited. Now the tremendous level of debt is exactly what will cause the inflation as they monetize new debt to maintain system liquidity. The system is different now than the one people are taught about.
George, I assume you used the latest 2005 numbers. It would be interesting to see how your indicators work using the original 2005 numbers before revision. As you know recessions rarely get identified until after they start. Maybe we would see a completely different picture if you can find and use the unrevised numbers.
The indicators only have credibility if you believe the listed numbers and even if you do the way they are weighted and calculated changes to make the most current administration look better. They change the definitions and the way they calculate the charts on the current charts while leaving the old charts unchanged so you can not compare them accurately. Example, Obama claimed that he deported more “undocumented migrants” than any other president in history, the numbers of deportations under his administration proved him right but only because he changed what counted as deportations. Before his administration people caught at the border and sent back after processing were not counted as being deported but the definition changed so they were counted in his numbers even though the previous administrations numbers did not include them as being deported so in reality if you would change the past numbers to reflect the current definitions he would have been wrong but the new definition and counting procedure are not applied to the previous numbers or charts being compared. This happens in all aspects of government.
Thanks George G
I will be forever grateful to you Valerie Newell. You changed my whole life and I will continue to preach your name for the world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with the little I had. Thank you Valerie Newell.
I’m surprised you know her too. I’ve been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.
Mrs Valerie Newell changed my life because of the high profits I got from investing with her.
You invest with Mrs Valerie Newell too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I’m new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can’t say much
High debt interest means the dollar’s stability is fragile. Cutting rates might cause some serious turbulence.
I think it’s important to stick to stocks that are immune to economic policies. AI stocks that have the potential to power and transform future technologies. It seems AI is the trajectory most companies are taking, including even established FAANG companies. Maybe there are other recommendations?
I bought into NVIDIA around September last year because my financial advisor recommended it to me. He said the company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return this year.
That’s a great analogy and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trends that are difficult for the untrained eyes to see.
This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances before retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?
Matthew Roland Gilmore. He turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction
He appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on his name and came across his website; thank you for sharing.
*I Hit $12,590 k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last week .i started with 3k last weerk. now i just hit $12,590…*
Love the analysis, i like seeing the data stuff when coming up with a thesis!
You are making this way too complicated George. The Fed Funds rate exactly mirrors the 2 year treasury yield, but lags it. The 2 year is set by the market. So why does the Fed exist???
Gunlach hasn’t gone broke following this theory 😂
I know what Powell is doing. If Powell does not raise rates commerce slows down because large purchases requiring financing cannot happen. Powell is forcing sellers to lower their prices. This allows commerce to continue without adding liquidity to the system. In fact, it’s better to buy when interest rates are high IF the seller has lowered their asking price to offset the impact of higher interest. Why is this good? Because later when interest rates come down, you can refinance at the lower rate.
Very nice! Thanks George 🙏
I, for one, believe the data we have today is far less trustworthy than it was in 2008.
The economy is bifurcated at this point. Two different worlds spreading further and further apart in terms of lived experience.
Love the white board thanks
You could also look further upstream of some of this to government spending / budget as a percent of GDP. 4.5% of GDP to 8% of GDP now. It’s essentially government stimulus, just through different means
you miss one thing: outside the US the demand for US bonds is going lower and lower. Lowerd demand = higher interest rates to get rid of them (or QE which in the end also gives inflation = higher rates)
Great work by the editor on this one, brilliant video.