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I would love to see how the changes in housing prices ties to other inflation calculation methodologies rather than the CPI. George is likely right, but I still feel CPI rates are grossly understated in terms of cost of living increases, or at least they have been in the last two years.
Bank rates.
Yes, CPI is not relavant unless you are buying all the components in the basket. If I’m not buying a used car or new home and those factors go down, but gas, energy and food is where I spend my income and they have drastically gone up, CPI no longer reflects reality for me.
If only CPI was a basket of property tax, food, gasoline, gas, electricity, water, insurance and other things we pay daily for …
Click bait
George is good at looking at graphs, but what he doesn’t realize there are about eight or ten other factors that affect housing prices other than inflation and wages. Look at places like Hong Kong and Australia, property values keep going up for decades while George would have predicted a huge crash 20 or 30 years before.
Home owners. No one owns their house in the US. End annual property taxes
The term home owner is the biggest joke.
Serfdom
Yes. The elephant on you doorstep. None in the tiny house. SMH
This feels like a very slow moving plan crash. The fed now will be able to go to QE forever, or drop interest rates before the 50% drop hits or before home prices hit rock bottom, when we are in the recession or when skyrocketing unemployment takes hold. I actually wish George’s free market analysis takes place, but I fear for the country QE forever will happened before the market collapse.
Not without risking inflation going up again.
That’s exactly what’s going to happen.
@AzhKumb This is such a slow moving plane crash that inflation will eventually come down due to the recession and unemployment, the fed will act late after the recession, by then QE forever and lower interests rates will happen again because the new challenge will be deflation.
No one is going to want to have a mortgage payment in 10 years.
Bring on the deflation! I’m ready.
I’m surprised you didn’t mention reverse mortgages. They are permitting people to stay in homes much longer than they did in the past – and I should think they are buoying the price of homes today by keeping supply artificially low as well.
👍
During the ’08-09 bust my house dropped 18% in a year. I’m in an established stable suburban area. Given supply dynamics plus other variables in current market with quickly rising rates and inflation, by comparison, I don’t find it unreasonable to see a 30% correction for the main year event. Of course it really doesn’t matter if you’re not going to sell, most of us aren’t, but some people want to just because of aging out of markets. Gen X is at the spot where things are slowing down and I for one want to just buy a cheap house with my wife in the mountains but can’t because a $150k house is selling for $500k. It’s stupid to sell and move to that. Looks like a better plan to sell now and cruise the country in an RV for a couple/few years, park her down by the river if you know what I’m saying.
Yep! The old RV down by the river plan , sounds good
Living in a van down by the river! Actually van 🚐 living is a lot bigger than I was aware of.
Have you priced RVs lately?😂😂
That $500k house may get a lot more affordable soon.
Great analysis, thanks George. One consideration: what if the rate of inflation is actually much higher than what the chart says (high probability) then home prices have less way downwards (I.e less than 40%). CPI Rigging might be much higher than ever😅
I turned to this guy whenever I need to hear what I want to hear. W/o having to go to a bar or calling my brother in Florida
A few minutes into it my brain is completely free of anything, I even have to check the time and even the date, complete reset
Thank you you make my day when I really need you!
Feeling better
Corporations or smaller conglomerates will likely not allow many homes to hit the market as they continue to buy them up. There needs to be some legislation to stop private homes from being bought up by companies.
Corporations have run out of cheap money this is why the corporate real estate market is crashing. Also, unlike standard home loans corporations have revolving debt, given the high interest rates, corporations don’t have an appetite for debt and even if they do banks don’t have the appetite to lend.
There does need to be. Americans need to start making phone calls and do something.
Corporate buying stopped months ago. I they see what George is seeing why would they over spend ?
@danielturner9832 they stopped buying, and are even selling – their most profitable. They won’t release a flood and lower the price of housing.
High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I’m concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won’t have enough savings for retirement since I can’t contribute as much as before.
It’s recommended to save at least 20% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 20% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of investing in the stock market and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.
Considering the increased complexity since the 2008 crash and COVID, I suggest diversifying your financial portfolio. I hired an advisor and successfully grew my portfolio by over $150K during this turbulent market using defensive strategies that protect and profit from market fluctuations.
@Adam Sattler That’s quite impressive!, I could really benefit from the experience of these advisors, my portfolio has been performing poorly, who is assisting you?
@Adam Sattler Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
@Danny Holt The problem with our 401k is the lack of selection and terrible performances. We diversified according to the metrics, but I fear it won’t be enough. This year, even with the recent rally, I still think we lost more than we put in.
I’m hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2024. As a backup plan, I’ve been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
How many homes do you currently own?
While I wait for a housing bubble to bust and attempt to avoid inflation, I recently sold a couple of residences in the Tampa area for a respectable profit, and I’m thinking about investing the money in stocks. But is now a wise moment to buy stocks? I understand it’s a madhouse right now, therefore I’d love to hear how folks are consistently making significant six-figure profits.
Consider this: while some people wait for the stock market to recover in order to make a small profit, others already know where to look and what to do to make a large profit right now. So, understanding how to take chances is undoubtedly important.
True, I was in a bind myself because of this chaotic market; I wasn’t sure whether to sell or hold off a little longer, as 75% of my portfolio was in the red, and the outlook for the economy wasn’t promising, but I started to gain clarity and gain more confidence in my investment through a stock advisor. I know most DIY investors like me would argue that advisors aren’t necessary, but come to think of it, they’re better trained and equipped at this, so I’m cool with it.
This year’s money, omg? This morning I was reading an article on Bloomberg on ways to profit from the current market slump. But since I’m a total rookie, I don’t comprehend the majority of it. Who is this person giving you advice? My portfolio is giving me serious troubles right now.
The fact your asking for advice on YouTube tells you enough. Should’ve kept the land
@Geektalk Yeah, this forum is NOT my preferred choice of investment strategy. That aside, one investment strategy that is rock solid is this: market timing does NOT yield optimal (or even beneficial) results. Investing is a long-term game.
as a millenial wanting to buy their first home since forever, this just sounds too good to be true. like, literally, i can’t bring myself to believe this.
As someone that’s traveled the world and seen how abnb has wrecked housing markets in other countries and continents. This seems very plausible if legislation is made. I’ve been also looking at homes in different states and noticing alot of home prices being reduced 🤔. I’d say have money ready for something in the next 3-12 months
Biden
that is lie obviously
Great video. Everything you presented has been in my head for a couple years already. I remember banks offering cash for keys. Once people get the stark revelation that they are upside down, which most already are. And they have a hiccup in their finances, They will be forced to short sale or just out right bailout on their mortgage.
I predict a housing crash due to people buying homes over asking price, lacking equity if prices decline further. Foreclosure becomes likely if they can’t afford the house, and selling won’t yield profits. With anticipated layoffs and rising living costs, many individuals may face this situation.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too.
I wholeheartedly concur, which is why I appreciate giving an investment coach the power of decision-making. Given their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risk for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it is practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $745k working with an investment coach for more than two years.
@Brillian Tran That’s fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
My Financial adviser is ‘’JULIE ANNE HOOVER’’ she’s highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
@Brillian Tran Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I think you make a very sound and reasonable case. But honestly, I’ve pretty much given up thinking there’s going to be any type of real estate crash. I’m not even sure there’s going to be any type of correction. Every time in the past there were all indications there would be a crash like during the financial crash, real estate prices may have dropped but everything quickly recovered and then increased. I would love to see some sort of “great reset” in the real estate and automobile industries but not seeing it happening
Yes, same here. I do not think that will happen. The population is on the rise and resources are getting scarce. Housing will be always expensive. Watch it right after when the mortgage interest rates start to fall again. A giant flock of home buyers will rush in.
That was on account of realtor manipulation and free helicopter money , that is not the case now and hopefully not for the foreseable future
I think the “forced to sell” thing is what would do it. Forclosures happen in waves sometimes. You cant keep that interest rate if you can no longer make the payment. It is sad though, people losing their homes should not be happening in most cases.
I would pay my mortgage before any other bill. I never did bankruptcy, but if it saved my house I would. I hope I never have to because as long as I have a job I will pay my debts.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn’t solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Despite utilizing the correct strategies and possessing the right assets, there can still be variations in the investment returns among different investors. It is important to acknowledge that experience plays a crucial role in investment success. Personally, I realized the significance of this and sought the guidance of a market analyst, which enabled me to substantially grow my account to nearly a million. I strategically withdrew my profits just before the market correction, and now I am taking advantage of the buying opportunities once again.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
The adviser I’m in touch with is Helene Claire Johnson. She was interviewed on CNBC Television. You can use something else, for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
I located her, sent her an email, and we set up a call; hopefully, she will answer because I want to end 2023 on a solid financial footing.
The piece of the puzzle that I was missing: When George showed the huge number of people that get a loan (a huge debt also called mortgage) to “buy” a house not to live in it but to rent it out, I could not believe there are so many crazy in this world.
One thing I think your missing is that the shortage of inventory is not just that home owners don’t want to sell it’s that the 08 great recession led to a significant drop in new home construction. It’s been estimated that there were 7-10 million less homes built from 2008 until 2016 and this has not been made up for. If this doesn’t get filled I don’t see a market “crash” in the next few years. Also, there is still a pent up demand that will be unleashed when interest rates fall to a more reasonable level, soaking up any increase of new listings. My take…
Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
If you are new to the market, I recommend seeking professional assistance. The most effective approach to creating a well-organized portfolio is to begin with a professional who is knowledgeable about the turbulent yet profitable market.
Over the past three years, I have been working with a professional who has provided daily guidance on my financial decisions. With their expert analysis, I have realized gains of over $1 million. Their insights have helped me avoid losses and capitalize on market breakthroughs, particularly during downtrends.
@Dr Laszlo Lee How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
@Melissa B Wehner I’m been guided by “Susan Bauer Normansell,” who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.
@Dr Laszlo Lee Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.