WARNING: Treasury Yields Are Signaling Something Big

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Cameron Long

Cameron Long

Cameron is a seasoned CFO and CPA with 31 years in finance. He created the AI Trader's Playbook to help everyday investors use AI to find high-confidence trades — in minutes, not hours.

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    1. most of US Congress are doing this. GREAT example; Nancy Pelosi. however, in 2022 investigation by The New York Times identified 97 current members of Congress are accuse of insider trading

    1. Note: he release syria sanction, next are iraq and Iran. To help them buy the debt. But is game over. When nothing else work, they will take you to war. Iran is the key

  1. It should have been a Constitutional stipulation that any deficit spending would be paid for out of the personal wealth of Congress.

    1. @anonymouslyominous3  growth of the national debt and the enslavement of our future? Yes, yes it would have constrained it.

    2. You need to allow the monetary mass to grow to match the rate of growth of the economy. So, your rule would be as follows: any deficit spending above real GDP growth comes out of the congress personal pockets.

    3. ​@@HectorYagueThat is good in theory, but the politicians and bureaucrats would just fudge the data to stay in power. Better if there was a hard deficit avoidance law coupled with a sunset clause that required legislators and bureaucrats to give up their posts if a deficit persisted longer than a limited timeframe on their watch.

    4. @@HectorYague growth of government does not equate to growth of the economy. Here is how to accomplish what you want: cancel all internal revenue collection and let all government spending be conducted out of new money creation. The amount of new money the government is allowed to spend should be pegged to the Net Domestic Product. That is currency expansion that matches the economic growth, resulting in net zero inflation and a rock stable currency.

  2. There’s definitely something stirring beneath the surface when it comes to treasury yields. We’ve seen fluctuations before, but the sharp movement in recent weeks feels different—it’s almost like the bond market is quietly trying to warn us about a shift in macro sentiment. Whether that’s inflation expectations, recession fears, or a policy change ahead, one thing’s clear: yields don’t move like this without a deeper story brewing.

    1. What I find interesting is how disconnected equities seem from these signals. Historically, when yields spike or drop significantly, it tends to ripple through every asset class, but lately, markets have been behaving as if the bond market and stock market are telling two different stories. That divergence always makes me nervous—someone’s got the story wrong.

    2. It’s made me re-evaluate how I’m positioning my portfolio. I used to think of bonds as the “boring” side of investing, but the last couple of years have made it clear that even the fixed income side has drama. The way yields are behaving right now makes me question the timing of rate cuts, and whether the Fed is as in control as they want us to believe.

    3. Just finished a book that completely shifted how I view investing—The Philosophy of Smart Investing by Jennafer Turner. It made me reconsider how I approach money, risk, and opportunity. If you’re in the middle of re-evaluating your financial game plan like I am, this one’s a must-read. It offered a fresh lens—and honestly, a new perspective is something we could all benefit from these days.

    4. The book dives into exactly the kind of mindset shift that’s necessary when markets get unpredictable like this. Turner really challenges some of the traditional thinking about safety and risk—and in the context of treasury yields signaling big changes, it’s incredibly relevant. There’s a lot in there about how to build flexibility into your investment strategy while still aiming for long-term growth.

    1. I just figured out the joke. I remember I worked at a grocery store where people suddenly believed that drinking Corona will actually cure the coronavirus

  3. Thanks for always explaining things and the white board! Educating us along the way is appreciated!

    1. according to him, the sky has been falling for the last 1001001031089823490890389012 years. nothing happens and the market just keeps going up.

  4. Doesn’t make sense. The golden rule is that when there is massive demand for treasuries the interest on those treasuries goes down because the FED doesn’t need to incentivize the buyers with higher rates. So why is it not going down, since you always say George, that the market dictates the rates not the FED. I’m totally confused.

    1. There is no demand for bonds as the world does not trust the US government anymore and is dumping bonds as a consequence.

    2. Treasuries are not selling at auction
      Until the last second some mysterious buyer swoops in and buys an unfathomable amount.
      I wonder who

    1. The Fed goes and Trump slashes interest rates and the dollar collapses. Any reduction of checks and balances is a disaster. Your living through the Government with no guardrails and your already paying the price.

    2. @@bestofatlconcertsHave you “Beeen There” (Douglas Murray)? The theory works or not, regardless of whether he is an 🤓economist 🤔!

    1. what video were you watching certainly not this one unless you have no idea what was being discussed.

    2. @@psilocybemusashi TREASURIES ARE HOW YOU ARE SOLD !!!!! AND NOBODY WANTS UNPRODUCTIVE SLAVES !!!!!

    3. @@scottyp3956 THE RICH SALE AND BUY YOU SLAVES !!!! DIFFERENT SLAVES ARE STOCKS AND THEN BONDED!!!!!!!

    1. dont worry about time of the kerplunk! it will happen at some point, its inevitable due to economic cycles (1 economic cycle is 7-10years) time is not pn our side either as, you said it, “it has been 10y!” 100% it has, will happen soon due to that fact. Good Luck everyone!

    2. America now has a peer competitor that us a serious threat. You guys will lose i suspect. Eventually, the american ponzi scheme will fail

  5. Guess my 100k is just gonna sit tight while Trump’s tariffs shake things up. Anyone else loving this rollercoaster, or is it just me being sarcastic here?

    1. You guys always make it sound like it’s easy. how do even know when you’re investing “smartly” ? seems you find out only after you’ve either made or lost funds.

    2. Tbh adhering to well established patterns from a professional, even as a rookie, can bring tremendous value! I’ve trimmed, added also and now my average growth has increased 88% in the past year while participating behind a top performer. It’s truly great to see steady growth.

    3. This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances prior to retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?

    4. Matthew Roland Gilmore. He turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction

    5. He appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on his name and came across his website; thank you for sharing.

  6. ThNk you George for these videos. It gives jo public a chance at working out the true position.

  7. This video helped me so much. I’ve been racking my brain lately trying to figure this out. Thanks so much for this George

  8. Many investors suffer from tariff derangement syndrome. I got big gains buying stocks in April.

  9. My ex was a corporate officer of AVT they manipulated the stock price every year driving the price down in the fall when they were awarded their options and up a few months later when they exercised them — million dollar Rolex collections villas in Italy sucking on our taxes as a military contractor

  10. 10 year yield staying elevated, inflation not coming down to official target, gold prices outperforming stocks and bonds, real estate prices unaffordable to most. Put it all together and we are already in the downward spiral

  11. If for the tiny chance your financial career fails, you could do standup. You have a natural stage presence and your sarcastic undertones are hilarious! 😂

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